INTERNATIONAL FUTURES FORUM 1998
SUMMARY
Our mental models are
still anchored in the industrial era. We are using mechanistic
frameworks and inappropriate measures to try to understand the
new economy. We still see time as linear instead of parallel;
resources as finite instead of renewable; choices as either or,
not both and; management systems about counting instead of flow
channelling; skills and knowledge about degrees and exams and
not adaptability and awareness. The new rules are far from clear
but the ability to integrate them will be akin to adopting the
role of surfer instead of dam builder.
Nowhere
to hide in the global nervous system
The levels of integration
in the global economy are such that actions and ideas develop
a momentum of their own. Amplified and echoed through multiple
feed back loops, statements and actions are instantaneously visible;
responses can be immediate and orchestrated; impacts and implications
irreversible. For good and ill, regions, communities, companies
and individuals all face exposure in this way: boundaries are
porous, marketplaces world wide, competition everywhere and nowhere.
Survival of the fittest through specialisation appears the dominant
philosophy, but what of survival of the planet, the system in
its entirety?
Choice
and the common good
The pressures of instability
are being felt at every level, as is the demand for new responses
to the changes: global system; national, regional and local community;
the individual. The challenge is that old rules no longer seem
to apply. The results of actions, policy decisions and inputs
to the system cannot be foreseen and often the outcomes are the
opposite of those intended - further reinforcing the sense of
instability and unmanageability of the system. Concepts such as
the nation state and traditional forms of society and the common
good - and with them systems such as tax and social security -
may disappear as the demand for choice combines with the ability
to manage systems at 'the molecular level'.
Regional
polarisation and fragmentation
On a regional level, the
intense competition to survive is likely to lead to increasing
specialisation, protectionism and the development of niche economies
- the rules of which may be developed to suit the local community
or region. Thus, integration of the overall system may run parallel
to fragmentation of the rules by which different parts of the
economy operate. Lack of clarity about moral codes of conduct
in addition to changing economic frameworks will increase the
complexity and raise the stakes to find effective responses.
Highly
leveraged impacts
The high levels of system
integration mean that the global economy and the systems within
it - financial, communication, health, social security etc - are
increasingly exposed and vulnerable to abuse and misuse at every
level. The impacts of actions and threats to the system - whether
real or virtual in all senses of the words - reach far beyond
the immediate location of the event or attack. Individuals, small
groups or significant subsets of societies can impose their views
and needs with enormous effect - for good or ill.
The
changing boundary of the individual
Our ability to manage
systems at the 'molecular level' places greater emphasis on individual
choice and responsibility. Both are enabled by the growing levels
of in-built intelligence in our surroundings, which provide a
flow of real-time information and knowledge on which to base decisions.
The ability of the individual to absorb and manage these new found
complexities, freedoms and responsibilities will be crucial in
defining wider social structures. Inability or unwillingness could
result in loss of self control and fundamentalism: the ability
to do so could mark the beginning of the real shift to the new
economy.